William Blair just told clients to buy Coinbase after a 31% rally, and the reasoning has nothing to do with Bitcoin price.
That's the part most traders are skipping past. The investment bank trimmed its EBITDA estimate for COIN, acknowledged the stock has already had a serious run, and still called it an attractive entry point. That kind of conviction after a 31% move is not routine. It signals the analysts believe the market is still underpricing something structural.
That something is USDC.
Blair's core bull case for Circle hinges on stablecoin growth as the next major catalyst. USDC has been quietly clawing back market share after a brutal 2023 that saw it bleed dominance to Tether. With stablecoin legislation moving through Washington and institutional demand for dollar-denominated on-chain liquidity accelerating, Circle sits at an intersection that doesn't stay cheap for long.
The Coinbase angle is different but equally compelling.
Blair's EBITDA trim is worth understanding correctly. This isn't a bearish revision disguised as optimism. Analysts cutting near-term estimates while maintaining a buy rating are essentially saying: the short-term noise doesn't change the long-term setup. What Blair is watching is Coinbase's operating leverage. As crypto trading volumes recover, COIN's margins expand fast. The business model means a moderate volume uptick translates into an outsized earnings move. Traders who wait for the earnings beat to confirm it will be buying significantly higher.
Estimates stabilizing is the signal most retail investors miss entirely.
When analyst estimates stop falling and begin to floor, institutional money starts positioning before the consensus catches up. Blair flagging estimate stabilization for both COIN and Circle is essentially a heads-up that the downgrade cycle is over. The next analyst move on these names is more likely to be an upgrade than a cut.
Here's what crypto holders should actually watch.
First, track USDC's circulating supply weekly. If it continues recovering toward $45 billion and beyond, Circle's revenue story becomes impossible to ignore ahead of its anticipated public debut. Second, watch Coinbase's monthly trading volume disclosures. Any month that comes in above the trailing average will re-rate COIN faster than most expect.
The broader implication is straightforward: traditional finance is no longer waiting on the sidelines to see if crypto survives. They are positioning for the recovery before it becomes obvious. When a firm like William Blair calls a 31% winner still cheap, the window for the same entry is closing.
The smart money has marked the chart. The question is whether you're watching the same one.